I know, I disappeared for a month. I have finally reached the acceptance phase over the Cubs collapse. Go Rays!!
OK, here's what I'm betting on Saturday. I made my Friday picks during lunch today at work and left them there, I'll post them tomorrow. All of my bets are exactas of some kind.
Race 1: BC Marathon
This is a new race, at 1 1/2 miles on the Pro-Ride synthetic surface. No more 'real' dirt in California.
I'm going with #4 Sixties Icon, who is probably the best horse in the race, and #6 Zappa. Sixties Icon has never run on dirt, but if he likes it he should be by far the best. Zappa has good recent Beyers, and a cool name :) I am putting #7 Big Booster under them in the exacta because he likes the distance and closes well.
The bet: Exacta 4,6/4,6,7
Race 2: BC Turf Sprint
Another new race, at an odd distance, about 6 1/2 furlongs. The race is totally up in the air.
I'm going with #2 Fleeting Spirit, #3 True to Tradition and #13 Get Funky. Fleeting Spirit seems like the best of the European horses and has very good Racing Post numbers. True to Tradition has the best Beyers and may be a big price. Get Funky has a bad post on paper, but the first 3 furlongs are pretty much straight so he should be able to get in to good position for the turn.
The bet: Exacta box 2,3,13
Race 3: BC Dirt Mile
This race was run for the first time last year. Santa Anita is a bad track for 1 mile races, it is a very short run to the first turn so the outside horses are at a big disadvantage.
I'm picking #1 Lewis Michael and #8 Well Armed. Well Armed looks to be the best horse on paper, but I'm not totally sure if he can win from post 8. Lewis Michael really like the synthetic surface and has been running well as of late. I'm putting #7 Albertus Maximum under them, he's been running well of late as well. This is going to be a bunch of short price exactas.
The bet: Exacta 1,8/1,7,8
Race 4: BC Mile (turf)
This is the first of the "traditional" BC races. And I'm picking more chalk :(
I'm going with #2 Kip Deville and #4 Goldikova. Other than his last race on yielding turf, Kip Deville has been on fire, winning the three previous races, including last year's BC Mile. Goldkova, another import has won some big mile races in Europe and should be right there at the end. I'm throwing #1 Shakis under them, he should have a nice ground saving trip on the rail.
The bet: Exacta 2,4/1,2,4
Race 5: BC Juvenile
I hate this race. It is very hard to figure out how these horses are going to do after only running 4 or 5 races in their careers. That being said, I'm going to bet the race anyway.
I'm going with #3 Terrain, #4 Square Eddie and #8 Street Hero. Terrain is going to go off at a big price, his last two races were from bad posts and he ran well both times despite that. Square Eddie is another invader from Europe and looked good in his only US start. Street Hero won his last time out at Santa Anita, and he has pretty good Beyers, too.
The bets: Exacta box 3,4,8 Win 3
Race 6: BC Juvenile Turf
This is the 2nd running of this race. I'm guessing it is here to get more horses to ship over from Europe. I don't like it either, but since I have a gambling problem I will bet it.
I'm taking #3 Westphalia, #4 Donativum and #11 Bittel Road. All of the good US horses are too far outside so I can't bet them. Westphalia seems to be the best of the European horses and is coming off of a nice win last time out. Donativum beat 24 (!!!) horses last time out in a $1.75 million race. Bittel Road is coming from an outside post but he's going to be at the back of the pack going around the first turn anyway, so it shouldn't matter. He will be flying through the stretch, though.
The bet: Exacta box 3,4,11
Race 7: BC Sprint
This is a fun race. I'm guessing they'll break the track record.
I'm going with #1 Cost of Freedom, #2 Street Boss and #4 Midnight Lute. Cost of Freedom was claimed for $50k last summer and has been on fire ever since. 110 Beyers on both of his races since the claim. Should smoke them from the rail. Street Boss will be flying in the stretch, but I'm not sure there is going to be enough pace for him to win. Midnight Lute won this race last year and has been training well the past 6 weeks.
The bet: Exacta box 1,2,4
Race 8: BC Turf
This is usually a great betting race, lots of great horses and usually there isn't a big favorite. That may not be the case this year.
I'm going with #3 Grand Couturier, #4 Soldier of Fortune and #9 Conduit. Grand Couturier has looked great in his last two wins, the big question is whether or not he's going to like the firm turf. Soldier of Fortune is a monster horse from Europe. He'll be a short price but he is by far the best horse on paper. Conduit isn't as good as Soldier of Fortune, but he's another very solid European and he's coming off a win in a $900k race.
The bet: Exacta box 3,4,9. I may place a bet on Conduit to win as well.
Race 9: BC Classic
This one is Curlin versus the world. I think he can do it.
I'm going with #1 Go Between and #9 Curlin. Go Between loves the synthetic surfaces and is coming off a big win in the Pacific Classic. I'm not sure if there is going to be enough speed up front for him to win. Curlin on paper is much better than the other horses in the race. But he's never run on a synthetic surface and he didn't like the turf when he tried it earlier this year. I'm also concerned a little about his post, it's a little further outside than I'd prefer. I'm putting #3 Tiago and #4 Duke of Marmalade under them. Tiago is almost a hunch bet, he's a deep closer but I'm not sure if he's fast enough to win it. Duke of Marmalade has 5 Group 1 wins this year in Europe, I don't know if he's going to like the surface and if he's coming off form after his 7th place finish in the Arc.
The bets: Exacta 1,9/1,3,4,9 Triple 1,9/1,4,9/1,3,4,9 Exacta 4/1,9
Well, hopefully I'll hit enough of these to make some money.
